Julian Koski

Here's a sobering number: Zero. That's how many of the 22 U.S. equity categories saw a majority of active managers outperform their benchmark over 15 years, according to the latest SPIVA scorecard. 2025 didn't help. It was the fourth-worst year on record for active large-cap managers (79% underperformed the S&P 500). This is not an attack on active management. It's an honest observation abou...

The real risk isn't the event, it's your reaction to it. Liberation Day tariffs. A 20 percent drawdown. A ceasefire rally out of Iran. Small caps ripping 45 percent off their 2025 lows. If nothing else, 2026 has been a masterclass in volatility. But after more than two decades in this seat, one thing is clear. The noise is not the problem. Our reaction to it usually is.    Markets, in my experien...

We don't pick winners. We avoid losers. Sounds backwards, right? The entire investment industry sells you the fantasy that someone—some analyst, some algorithm, some guru—can identify tomorrow's Apple before it happens. Here's what the betting industry figured out decades ago: the house doesn't care which team wins. They care about their edge. They care about probability. We took notes. The ...

You can diversify company risk away, you can hedge market risk, but you can only avoid the risk that comes from human behavior. Read the conversation in Financial Advisor Magazine on the h-factor and unpriced behavioral risk. https://lnkd.in/eVKZp2_E

The Future of Investing Is Being Raised on DraftKings Read the Substack article here: https://lnkd.in/eq8jACr2 58% of 18-22 year olds have tried sports betting. On college campuses, 67% of male students are active bettors. Over a third of adolescent boys are already gambling. Read that again. These aren't just troubling public health statistics.  These are your future clients. Your future inv...

Walk into any casino in Vegas and they'll show you exactly how stacked the deck is. Blackjack? 0.5% house edge. Roulette? 5.26%. It's right there. You know what you're getting into. Now look at your portfolio. What are the odds that the growth priced into your holdings actually materializes? Nobody knows. Nobody even asks. Here's the uncomfortable truth: stock prices aren't just built on fac...

Private credit was supposed to be the safe haven, so they said. Then Blue Owl Capital had to sell $1.4 Billion urgently. This risk hiding in plain sight was never financial. It was always human. The bottomline? Narratives filled the gaps that fundamentals could never support. Blue Owl's gating isn't an isolated event; it's what happens when storytelling and narrative meets reality.  Read the...

When the Fed pauses, markets tend to relax. But mixed economic signals, crowded expectations, and narrative-driven investing can quietly increase risk. In this article, we explore the difference between forecasting monetary policy and measuring the behavioral risk already embedded in stock prices. https://lnkd.in/eYpaPT5D

Every advisor knows that clients fear losing money. It’s universal. It’s emotional. And it’s incredibly powerful. But here’s the shift: That fear is not a problem. It’s an opportunity. Loss aversion, the instinctive tendency to feel losses more acutely than gains, is more than a behavioral quirk. It’s a source of real advantage. First, it’s a potential source of alpha. Long-term outcomes aren’t...

Before Peloton collapsed from $167 to under $10, its h-factor was above 75%—a three-in-four probability it would fail to deliver the revenue growth indicated by its price.     That's behavioral overpricing risk. It's measurable. It's uncompensated. And it's already in your portfolio if you can't identify it.     Over 20 years, avoiding high h-factor stocks reduces volatility and improves risk-adju...

Defense stocks: Down 5% Wednesday afternoon. Up 8% Wednesday evening. Same companies. Same fundamentals. Same production capacity.  What changed? The narrative. Trump threatened to block buybacks, then proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget hours later. 12-14% swings in 24 hours based entirely on social media posts.    This is behavioral risk in real time. When billions in market cap move on ex...

Diversification protects against company-specific risk. But it can't protect against behavioral overpricing because many investors make the same mistake at the same time. The h-factor measures the probability that a company will fail to deliver the revenue growth indicated by its stock price. It's uncompensated risk. It's non-diversifiable. And the only solution is to avoid the losers before the...

Every December, investors look back and ask the same question:  “Was I right, or was I just lucky?”    I wrote a short piece looking at 2025 through a different lens.  Not narratives. Not forecasts.  Just where expectations ran ahead of reality, and where they didn’t.    It’s a simple review of what mispricing actually looked like this year, and what it tells us about risk hiding inside stock pric...

Everyone’s shouting about a market bubble. But if you look at the numbers a different way– they tell a very different story.    Before you sell, before you panic, examine the data through a different lens: You might be surprised by what the data actually says.    I break it down here:  https://lnkd.in/ekvFzPdG

Everyone’s talking about the Magnificent Seven. But they’re missing the real story – and the real risk. We just ran the numbers. You might be surprised where the alpha actually comes from. Have a look: https://lnkd.in/ewaw5Y5K

A trillion-dollar vote of confidence    Tesla’s shareholders didn’t just approve Elon Musk’s pay package. They put a price on a story: a one trillion-dollar story.    That number matters – not because of the compensation itself, but because it confirms something deeper. Investors have decided that storytelling can be monetized. And that faith in a story is often worth more than fundamentals.    We...

A few weeks ago, I asked a simple question about Tesla: What are you really investing in? The promise of a story, or the probability of success? Throughout 2025, Tesla has had the highest h-factor score in its peer group – a signal that human behavior (the h-factor) had pushed its stock price well beyond what the company was likely to deliver.  The h-factor isn’t about prediction. It’s a risk ...

If you asked me today, “Are all banks a good investment?” I’d have to say: it depends on what risk lens you’re applying.    Recent Q3 earnings from the major banks looked solid, no argument there. But the market seems to be treating a few strong quarters from the biggest names as proof that everyone is in the clear – and that’s where things get risky.    It happens all the time. A handful of leade...

Earnings season reminds me how much of the market is driven by randomness.  Not because fundamentals stop mattering, but because human behavior takes over in the short term. One comment in a call. One line in the guidance. Suddenly, a stock moves 10% – up or down – and the reason has little to do with the actual business. And yet, this is when advisors are expected to explain everything. To ...

Tesla is one of the stocks I probably get asked about most. And I understand the fascination: it’s a remarkable story of innovation, conviction, and American ambition. But for me, that’s exactly the issue: the story.  Tesla has long attracted a devoted base of believers who aren’t just buying the company – they’re buying the narrative.  That’s not a criticism. It’s a behavioral reality, beca...

It’s the myth, not the month, that moves the market in September    Every year, like clockwork, September arrives with a warning: “Historically the worst month for markets”.    It’s repeated in headlines. Whispered on trading desks. And it quietly shapes how investors behave – regardless of what the data actually shows.    That’s the real risk. Not whether September is bad. But that we expect it t...

Is this a bubble?    Every time the market pushes into new highs, advisors ask me the same thing: “Is this a bubble? And if it is, how do I protect my clients?”    The truth is, I don’t know if we’re in a bubble – and I certainly can’t predict the future. But this I do know: the S&P 500 hasn’t just gone higher, the median h-factor score has climbed with it.     Two years ago, it was in the low 20s...

And sure enough, the assumptions came rushing in. Earlier this week, before the Federal Reserve’s decision, I shared a thought: the real risk wasn’t the policy move itself, but the way investors would respond. In the eyes of investors, a cut would be read as proof the recovery is on. A pause would be read as danger ahead. Either way, people would jump to a conclusion – because that’s what we ...

What’s more predictable than the Fed? The way markets will react to it. Tomorrow’s rate decision is still unknown, but history tells us what comes next: investors will jump to conclusions. If the Fed cuts, many will treat it as proof that risk is behind us, and the recovery has begun. If the Fed holds, the opposite story will spread: danger ahead. Either way, people turn uncertainty into a sim...

As Daniel Kahneman reminded us, the real risk in markets isn’t about irrational choices but about how behavior shows up in prices. It’s not the company. It’s the price.  I’ve seen it before, and maybe you have too: a great company with a strong story, and still, the investment disappoints. That’s not bad luck. It’s a risk most of us miss. Read more...

More than a logo: what Cracker Barrel really tells us When Cracker Barrel recently updated its logo, it couldn’t have predicted the viral outrage it sparked. Worse still, its stock took a beating, with over $100 million in market value vanishing within the space of days in mid-August. Other than the logo change, what’s most striking about this is that nothing else about the fundamentals of the...

𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗐𝖾𝖾𝗄 𝗐𝖾 𝖾𝗑𝗉𝖾𝗋𝗂𝖾𝗇𝖼𝖾𝖽 𝖺𝗇𝗈𝗍𝗁𝖾𝗋 𝖻𝖺𝖿𝖿𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗎𝗅𝗍 𝗂𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗆𝖺𝗋𝗄𝖾𝗍𝗌: 𝗈𝗇 𝟤𝟩 𝖠𝗎𝗀𝗎𝗌𝗍, 𝖭𝗏𝗂𝖽𝗂𝖺 𝗋𝖾𝗉𝗈𝗋𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝟧𝟨% 𝗋𝖾𝗏𝖾𝗇𝗎𝖾 𝗀𝗋𝗈𝗐𝗍𝗁 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖺 𝟧𝟫% 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝖿𝗂𝗍 𝗌𝗎𝗋𝗀𝖾 𝗂𝗇 𝖰𝟤, 𝗒𝖾𝗍 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗍𝗈𝖼𝗄 𝖿𝖾𝗅𝗅 𝟥% 𝗂𝗇 𝖺𝖿𝗍𝖾𝗋-𝗁𝗈𝗎𝗋𝗌 𝗍𝗋𝖺𝖽𝗂𝗇𝗀.  𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗌𝗇’𝗍 𝖺𝗇 𝗂𝗌𝗈𝗅𝖺𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗂𝗇𝖼𝗂𝖽𝖾𝗇𝗍. 𝖮𝗇 𝖩𝗎𝗅𝗒 𝟥𝟣, 𝖠𝗆𝖺𝗓𝗈𝗇 𝗌𝗍𝗈𝖼𝗄 𝖿𝖾𝗅𝗅 𝟩% 𝗈𝗏𝖾𝗋𝗇𝗂𝗀𝗁𝗍 𝖽𝖾𝗌𝗉𝗂𝗍𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝗏𝖾𝗇𝗎𝖾 𝗀𝗋𝗈𝗐𝗍𝗁 𝗈𝖿 𝟣𝟥% 𝗂𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗊𝗎𝖺𝗋𝗍𝖾𝗋 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖻𝖾𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖤𝖯𝖲 𝖻𝗒 𝖺 𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝗆𝖺𝗋𝗀𝗂𝗇.  𝖶𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗀𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗌? 𝖠𝗇𝖼𝗁𝗈𝗋𝗂𝗇𝗀! 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗍𝖾𝗇𝖽𝖾𝗇𝖼𝗒 𝗍𝗈 𝗃𝗎𝖽𝗀𝖾 𝗇𝖾𝗐 ...

𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖲&𝖯 𝟧𝟢𝟢 𝗃𝗎𝗌𝗍 𝖼𝗅𝗈𝗌𝖾𝖽 𝗈𝗎𝗍 𝖿𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗂𝗀𝗁𝗍 𝖽𝖺𝗒𝗌 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗈𝗌𝗌𝖾𝗌 - 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖾𝖺𝗄 𝗌𝗂𝗇𝖼𝖾 𝖩𝖺𝗇𝗎𝖺𝗋𝗒. 𝖥𝗈𝗋 𝗆𝖺𝗇𝗒, 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝖿𝖾𝖾𝗅𝗌 𝗅𝗂𝗄𝖾 𝖺 𝗐𝖺𝗋𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗌𝗂𝗀𝗇. 𝖨𝗇𝗏𝖾𝗌𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗌 𝗌𝖾𝖾 𝖺 𝗉𝖺𝗍𝗍𝖾𝗋𝗇 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖺𝗌𝗌𝗎𝗆𝖾 𝗂𝗍 𝖼𝖺𝗋𝗋𝗂𝖾𝗌 𝗆𝖾𝖺𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀: 𝖿𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝖽𝖺𝗒𝗌 𝗆𝗎𝗌𝗍 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝗍𝗈 𝖽𝖾𝖾𝗉𝖾𝗋 𝗍𝗋𝗈𝗎𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝖺𝗁𝖾𝖺𝖽. 𝖡𝗎𝗍 𝗂𝗍 𝖽𝗈𝖾𝗌𝗇’𝗍. 𝖳𝗁𝖺𝗍’𝗌 𝗇𝗈𝗍 𝖺 𝗌𝗂𝗀𝗇𝖺𝗅, 𝗂𝗍’𝗌 𝖺 𝗌𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗒. 𝖧𝗎𝗆𝖺𝗇𝗌 𝖺𝗋𝖾 𝗐𝗂𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝗅𝗈𝗈𝗄 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝗉𝖺𝗍𝗍𝖾𝗋𝗇𝗌, 𝗍𝗈 𝗂𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗌𝖾 𝗇𝖺𝗋𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗌 𝗈𝗇 𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗋𝗍-𝗍𝖾𝗋𝗆 𝗇𝗈𝗂𝗌𝖾, 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝖺𝖼𝗍 𝗈𝗇 𝖿𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗁𝖾𝗋 ...

"Avoid the Losers" isn’t just New Age Alpha's tagline — it’s a rethink of how we manage risk. Thanks to @Bill Hortz for capturing the essence of what we’re building at New Age Alpha. We believe that alpha doesn’t come from picking winners. It comes from avoiding the losers — and removing vague, ambiguous information from the equation. Read the full article here:  https://lnkd.in/ez5FV5aE

Learn how the h-factor can be used in your portfolio.

The New Age Alpha and Guggenheim teams worked tirelessly to make this happen. A very big thank you to you all. Now the hard work begins and we couldnt be more excited.

https://lnkd.in/dPZiAYeT

Financial analysts predicting when the Delta Variant will subside, even as the experts won't venture a guess. Unbelievable. That's the sort of vague & ambiguous information that drives so much of the financial community. Avoid it and your portfolio will thank you.

As I noted in June, “It’s still unclear if this type of tourism is going to open up again.” Much of the info surrounding the travel sector is vague & ambiguous and continues to be priced into stocks in a systematically incorrect way. Focus on fundamentals.

Further validation of the gamified market. I have said it time and time again, if you are going to gamble, be the casino. And the only way to do that is through an actuarial-based approach to investing that uses the power of probabilities. https://lnkd.in/ex3G9Ep

Great speaking with the Animal Spirits Podcast about the risk of human behavior in a portfolio and how investors can take a dramatically different approach to investing by avoiding the losers. https://lnkd.in/exgCjMz

Sh*t coins, I thought I had seen it all. This is gambling not investing. The pump & dumps will continue to exploit irrational human behavior through manipulation and speculation. Don’t add this risk to your portfolio, simply avoid the losers.

A valid point on meme stocks but the rest is hot air. Bubble boy needs to stop advocating market timing. He's creating risk by forecasting the future. If you want to avoid loss, focus on known info and avoid this type of vague & ambiguous info.

This might be some of the biggest BS out there. Investors have no clue! Time and time again they interpret vague and ambiguous information in a systemically incorrect way. There is a very real danger of a portfolio mispricing risk caused by this human behavior. Be warned!

The rally may have paused but the portfolio mispricing risk caused by the sentiment driven investing behavior is a concern. Avoid adding this risk to your portfolio, instead complement exposures with an actuarial investment approach that uses probabilities.

In a recent article, Drew Voros, editor of ETF.com highlights a growing portfolio risk from the gamification of markets spurred by retail investors and how new market dynamics make the mitigation of this gambling risk critical.

Concerns continue to grow surrounding Big Tech’s dominance and the potential impact that a sell off may have. Take a new approach - New Age Alpha’s U.S. Large-Cap Leading 50 Index offers large-cap diversification and potential outperformance.

What’s next, an NFT of Dutch Tulips? The underlying theme across most of these historical bubbles has been speculation driven by irrational investor behavior. Avoid adding this risk to your portfolio, instead take an actuarial-based investment approach.

Active thematic funds suffer from the traditional failings of active management as well as issues with chasing storylines. Avoid adding this risk to your portfolio, instead complement exposures with an actuarial investment approach that uses probabilities.

The risk a portfolio is mispriced increases every day. Robinhoods of the world are making human behavior a portfolio risk that you cannot afford to overlook. DCF, EPS, BETA value & growth risk metrics will fail to mitigate the risk of human behavior.

Can Tesla deliver? Our analysis indicates that Tesla has a 50% probability of failing to deliver the growth implied by its stock price. Through this, we believe it is fairly priced with almost even odds it will deliver the growth implied by its stock price.

Investors can potentially avoid a continued tech sell off by using a different gauge for large cap exposure. Providing large cap diversification, New Age Alpha’s U.S. Large-Cap Leading 50 Index offers potential outperformance but with low correlation.

Our analysis indicates that GameStop has a 97.8% probability of failing to deliver the growth implied by its stock price. When a stock’s price is so divorced from the company’s ability to deliver growth we believe you should simply stay away.

How should investors interpret Musk’s new ‘Technoking’ title? They shouldn’t, it’s nothing more than vague & ambiguous info being impounded into a stock price which creates a risk most are unaware of. Focus only on known information, not the unknown.

Every day, the market looks more like gambling than investing. At a casino you know the odds of winning. There are no odds for gambling in the market, it’s human behavior at work, there is no reward for accepting the risk from human behavior, just a cost.

Kass describes at length both the dangers of shorting and its importance in the market. When, really, all he's talking about is vague or ambiguous information getting impounded into stock prices via human behavior. https://lnkd.in/eq9e7FZ

Markets don’t come with traffic signals, but investors can use a real probability, the Human Factor, to measure the likelihood a company will fail to deliver the growth implied by the stock price. Through this, investors can avoid the risk of human behavior.

Through an actuarial-based approach to investing, investors can identify potential overpricing caused by human behavior. Simon C. looks at Tesla in his latest Forbes article.

Great chatting with Chuck Jaffe on The Money Life Show about the risk of human behavior and how to avoid the losers in any portfolio.

Advancements in technology and the continued growth of bespoke index providers will provide opportunities for metrics that measure risk in a new environment. Direct indexing will not mitigate the risk of human behavior.

Too much information. We all suffer from it. The key to investing is and has always been the RIGHT information.

With gambling you get paid when the casino loses, and you know the odds of that happening. In the stock market the downside risk is an unknown. It is about betting on mispriced odds; do you know the mispriced odds in the stock market? #superbowl #investing #stockmarket #risk

So proud of our first New Age Alpha podcast! Listen for a primer on our actuarial approach to risk and the importance of avoiding the losers. #podcast #investing #finance #stockmarket #avoidthelosers

Had a great conversation with Ryk Van Niekerk at Moneyweb. We discussed how the market attempts to pick winners when participants should simply avoid the losers. Be sure to give it a listen!

The dangers of tech - beware idiosyncratic risk coming from human behavior. Its not about the fundamentals. Most investors are unaware of this risk that impacts stock prices, it can’t be diversified away and you don't get paid for taking this risk.

Unpriced risk perfectly described. A very common occurrence on Wall Street.

I wrote last week that failure to manage risk from human behavior is akin to gambling. Well it’s worse, much worse. Gambling is a priced risk – although the odds are not good, at least we know what they are. Active stock picking (or advice giving by you or anyone else) is not a priced risk. It’s unpriced. There is no reward for taking it. Beta, size, momentum etc. are priced risk factors and you ...

I wrote previously that except for Force Majeure events, there is a human being at the root of all risk. Manage human behavior and you manage risk. Yet, the management and measurement of this behavior is completely absent from traditional Wall Street risk measures. Look at volatility CAPM and beta for a moment. Look at their calculations and you will see these measures are nothing more than a ref...

MAKING MONEY AND STAYING ALIVE ARE CLOSELY RELATED. Except for Force Majeure events, there is a human being at the root of all risk. Manage human behavior and you manage risk. It’s that simple. And to manage risk is to AVOID human behavior, nothing more nothing less. Listen to smart people and avoid the stupid. Not only will “they” help you lose money but in COVID times “they” might get you killed...

People are going to learn very quickly the difference between gambling and investing. Investing now is simply a gamble, there is no data to support investing. We saw this in 07-08. In October 07 the market reached a new high by Sept 08 we were down 40%. It takes time for bad news to roll through the system. Nobody knows what impact this is going to have, nor do they fully understand the contagion...

Put your emotional views of Tesla to the side.

If you think it takes skill to pick stocks think again. Its all luck...if you agree read.

Our first webinar is in a couple of weeks. Join to learn about our core investment strategy - Avoid the Human Factor. #avoidthehumanfactor

Just attended the Inside ETF conference in Florida. Shocking state of affairs, simply a race to the bottom on fees. We are in a state of moving assets from active/mutual funds into passive in the form of ETF's. As a result, flood of similar type product introductions, duplication and lack of innovation everywhere. Massive shakeout coming soon!! #mutualfunds #etfs

Fist bit of common sense I have heard in a very long time.

New York morning trade, we are looking at the major US stock averages pulling back below the flatline. This has come on the heels of some hotter than expected for CPI figures at the same time we are looking at the S&P 500 continuing to hit new record highs driven by the massive boom in AI as well as the resilient economy. But underneath the surface there are some warning signs that big tech comp...

Even though you might leave Africa, Africa never leaves you,” says South African-born Julian Koski. He left South Africa for the US as a young man in the 1980s, but his vivid memories of his childhood safari holidays stayed with him. Now living with his wife, Aida, in New York City, working on Wall Street and raising a family of his own — twins Leo and Tess — his thoughts turned once again to his...

Even though you might leave Africa, Africa never leaves you,’ says South African-born Julian Koski. He left South Africa for the US as a young man in the 1980s, but his vivid memories of his childhood safari holidays stayed with him. Now, living with his wife Aida in New York City, working on Wall Street and raising a family of his own – twins Leo and Tess – his thoughts turned once again to his c...

“Even though I left Africa, Africa never left me.” Ever since moving to the States and a career on Wall Street in 1983, Julian Koski has dreamt of returning to the African bush some day. Located in Thornybush Private Game Reserve in the Greater Kruger National Park, Kubili House sits atop the largest water reservoir in the reserve. You really don’t need to leave – game viewing from under the Mies...

Even though you might leave Africa, Africa never leaves you,” declares South African-born Julian Koski, who left South Africa for the U.S. as a young man in the 1980s. Now living with his wife, Aida, in New York City, working on Wall Street and raising a family of his own – twins Leo and Tess – his vivid childhood memories of safari vacations have stayed with him. “I wanted to give them a piece o...

"Even though you might leave Africa, Africa never leaves you,” says South African-born Julian Koski. He left South Africa for the US as a young man in the 1980s, but his vivid memories of his childhood safari holidays stayed with him. Now living with his wife, Aida, in New York City, working on Wall Street and raising a family of his own—twins Leo and Tess—his thoughts turned once again to his chi...